By Bryan Trude
Reporter Newspapers
An active El Nino cycle is expected to bring higher than average temperatures to the Eastside this winter. However the change probably will be so negligible that many would fail to notice it.
After a warmer, drier summer than normal across the Puget Sound, the Eastside communities Bellevue, Issaquah and Sammamish are expected to be in for a warmer, drier winter, according to Meteorologist Josh Smith with the National Weather Service’s Seattle office.
“The Climate Prediction Center is predicting an above normal average temperature this winter,” Smith said, “with a slight chance for slightly below average precipitation.”
The temperature variations can be tied directly to El Nino, a warming cycle of equatorial waters in the southern Pacific Ocean, which impacts climate and weather for countries all along the Pacific. The phenomenon draws its name — Spanish for “The Child,” referring to Jesus Christ — since it usually occurs and is most intense around Christmas.
El Nino conditions have impacts around the world, with many countries near the equator reporting increased risks of mosquito-born diseases such as malaria and dengue fever during the cycle.
In the Eastside, while El Nino is expected to keep temperatures warmer, the slight chance for below-average precipitation is not tied to the phenomenon, according to Smith.
Despite the forecast, actual impacts are not expected to be drastic. While average highs in the Eastside region hover in the mid-40s Fahrenheit in the winter, El Nino is expected to increase those averages into the upper 40s.
“These climate predictions never affect the weather that much,” Smith said. “There is generally only a few degrees of difference across the entire period.”
The warmer and drier winter expected for the Eastside should mirror conditions throughout Seattle and much of the Sound region, University of Washington Professor of Atmospheric Sciences and weather blogger Cliff Mass said. Mass’ blog is available on the Reporter website.
For more information or a more up-to-date weather forecast for the week ahead, visit www.weather.gov/seattle.
Bryan Trude: 425-391-0363 ext. 5054; btrude@issaquahreporter.com
