Is real estate rebounding? | Agents see positive signs, developers holding on

You know the housing market is in flux when September beats April in home sales.

Real estate appears to be rebounding after an abysmal dip – one that turned into a ride for the ages and ultimately punished undisciplined buyers and lenders.

“This has been the whackiest year ever in real estate,” said Anna Riley, a Windermere agent who specializes in West Bellevue homes. “Housing was at ground zero of the whole national debacle with the financial crisis.”

What Riley saw in the past was an overheated market in which demand was so high that buyers were ready to close on homes without having them inspected.

“Prices were just ridiculous,” she said. “If you were a buyer, it was unpleasant.”

Even novice agents were making money hand over fist in those days, but Riley says she could sense an untenable situation.

“Nobody wants to walk on slipping sand, and unbalanced markets are like that,” she said.

And so the market had to correct itself. But first it went from one bad extreme to another, with home sales hitting rock bottom around February.

What Riley sees now, or at least in the past 90 days, is a return to normalcy as housing demand has started to bounce back.

The agent website TrendGraphix.com shows a six-month inventory for West Bellevue homes listed under $1.5 million. There was a 22-month supply in that range during the worst of the recession.

“It’s a perfect balance,” Riley said. “It’s a very good, healthy, dynamic market.”

Kathy Estey, a managing broker for John L. Scott Real Estate, agrees. She says the market is trending in an unmistakably positive direction.

“Everything seems to be improving from a numbers standpoint,” she said.

But there’s still some disparity in just how balanced the markets have become. Some are leveling off more than others.

“I would say confidence levels are up across all price ranges, but not all have seen the same level of activity,” Riley said.

For homes between $1.5-$2 million, there was a 16-month supply on the market in September, according to TrendGraphix.com. That’s high, but it’s still better than the 29-month inventory that was hanging around for that price range last November.

Riley credits the market resurgence to three things: prices, which have dipped more than 10 percent at times; interest rates, which are at 40-year lows; and the stock market, which is boosting consumer confidence as it reaches its highest points since the start of the recession over a year ago.

Riley says it also doesn’t hurt that The Shops at the Bravern opened in September, adding a luxury shopping venue to Bellevue’s already burgeoning downtown.

“It’s just a more interesting place to be,” Riley said. “People who wouldn’t have been willing to move from Seattle are coming here now.”

Jim Cronkhite hopes that growing downtown allure will pay off for his Continental Condominiums, a former apartment complex located just behind Bellevue Square on 100th Avenue Northeast.

Cronkhite purchased his building in September 2007, when the market was still burning hot. It was too late to turn back once the financial crisis hit.

“You can’t afford to buy it and hold it,” he said. “You have to develop it.”

Cronkhite converted his building into 39 condo units, each of which ranges in price from $250,000 to $500,000. He said he’s seeing around 30 registrations per week for viewings.

“It’s a tough market out there, but it’s starting to firm up,” he said. “I think people have gotten past the panic stage.”